Something's wrong! Something's seriously wrong! Today, the global stock markets are soaring, with European and American stock markets rising across the board, and major indices all increasing by more than 1%; in the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets are also on the rise, with significant gains in countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and even the Hong Kong stock market is unilaterally rising. Why is it that only the A-shares are not rising?

It's the same stock market, but when global stock markets are all rising together with a surge in volume, our A-shares are peculiarly stagnant and unable to rise at all. What's the huge difference! After carefully observing the market, it turns out that there are several reasons why A-shares are not moving:

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Reason one: A-shares are severely lacking in volume; similar to the recent A-share volume shrinking to around 500 billion, it's absolutely unrealistic to drive a market value of 76 trillion with a volume of 500 billion. Therefore, today A-shares can only watch helplessly as the global stock markets rise, and the biggest internal reason behind this is the lack of volume, which continues to shrink today.

Reason two: A-shares are severely lacking in popularity; this round of phased adjustment has been going on for three months, and after continuous adjustments, most investors have been trapped. Even if they haven't been trapped, they dare not enter the market, leading to a low willingness to trade in A-shares, and the market has completely lost its popularity. It's good that a market without popularity doesn't fall sharply.

Reason three: Today, A-shares are hindered by resistance from above and also encounter some restless internal selling pressure; for example, at the opening, the bulls wanted to continue the upward push, but after a slight rise, they were suppressed by the 20-day moving average. It's clear that the 20-day moving average has become a resistance, and there is strong selling pressure at this position, which is also one of the main reasons why A-shares are not rising today.

Reason four: The performance of the heavyweight sectors today is not supportive. In the morning, insurance, oil, and banks had a fake rise, followed by a fluctuating decline; securities and liquor stocks fell instead, and cyclical stocks also performed weakly. When the market loses the drive of heavyweight stocks, A-shares definitely cannot rise, and relying on other thematic stocks cannot make A-shares rise.

Will it fall next week?

This week, A-shares first fluctuated and then tried to change upwards, but unfortunately, the upward change failed. It seems that next week, A-shares will be forced to continue to seek the bottom downwards.Predicting that next week's A-shares will first fluctuate near the 20-day moving average, then the bears will exert force and the market will slide down in a fluctuating manner, resuming the downward trend to seek a bottom; this implies that next week's A-shares are not optimistic, with overall risks outweighing opportunities, and next week's A-shares are not an opportunity.

Some people may argue against the bearish view on next week's A-shares. Of course, everyone has their own perspective. My personal reasons for not being optimistic about next week are as follows, for everyone's reference:

1. Trend: The downward trend of major indices is still sliding, and trends do not deceive; the center of gravity continues to shift downward.

2. Volume: The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is already below 600 billion, which is insufficient to drive the market up.

3. Sentiment: The current A-shares are filled with despair, with either a "lying flat" or a "wait-and-see" attitude, and the willingness to trade on the market is particularly low.

4. Weight: The strength of heavyweight stocks determines the rise and fall of A-shares, and the current heavyweight stocks are not strong enough to push up A-shares.

In summary, in the face of a global stock market that is booming, it is only our A-shares that do not rise but fall, which is quite disappointing. Behind this is the suppression by heavyweight stocks, moving average resistance, insufficient volume, and trends. Due to these unfavorable factors, next week's A-shares are still not optimistic.